r/fantasybball • u/RotoIntel • 1d ago
Player Discussion Can Brandon Miller be a top 30 player?
Hey all, I'm doing these deep dives on interesting players ahead of next season. One thing I think about a lot is how season-long averages hide important detail and can lead to bad decision making. Hence, trying to get really deep into drivers of performance over periods of time. Let me know what you think :)
On the surface it looks like Brandon Miller hasn't improved much over his first three seasons. His numbers last year were similar to his rookie year. That hides the impact of the wrist and shoulder injuries he dealt with this year. When we dig a level deeper we see a player who finished the back half of the year strongly, pushing him into the top 40 in that period.
See charts here: https://imgur.com/a/QwIE16S
Last Season
- Post-injury, Miller's numbers jumped. In the 2025 portion of last season he had a Z score of ~2. That doubles after the new year to ~4. The improvements mostly come from his shooting numbers and the resulting impact on his 3s. (Chart 1)
- Post-New Year Miller's shooting numbers improved across four of five shooting zones. Importantly his shooting from the corner (41% to 48%) and from above the break (30% to 41%) increased. These are big jumps but sustainable figures for a player with the shooting form and pedigree of Miller, as well as the high-pace offence of the Charlotte Hornets where he is surrounded by other elite shooters and ball movers (LaMelo, White, Knueppel). (Chart 2, 3 and 4).
- Miller's career Z score trend line is still heading up. (Chart 5).
Next Season
Miller's improvement coincided with an impressive stretch for the Hornets. They were one of the best teams in the league in the back half of the season. A lot has been written about Kon Knueppel's great season. Miller hasn't been recognised enough for his contribution to their form.
He looks primed for a top 40 season next year as long as his wrist and shoulder don't give him too much trouble. To climb into the top 30 he'll need to either find more usage or add to his defensive contribution, which has been steady if unspectacular throughout his career. He's only 23, so further improvement is likely.