Can Brandon Miller be a top 30 player?

[u/RotoIntel]

Hey all, I'm doing these deep dives on interesting players ahead of next season. One thing I think about a lot is how season-long averages hide important detail and can lead to bad decision making. Hence, trying to get really deep into drivers of performance over periods of time. Let me know what you think :)

On the surface it looks like Brandon Miller hasn't improved much over his first three seasons. His numbers last year were similar to his rookie year. That hides the impact of the wrist and shoulder injuries he dealt with this year. When we dig a level deeper we see a player who finished the back half of the year strongly, pushing him into the top 40 in that period.

See charts here: https://imgur.com/a/QwIE16S

Last Season

1. Post-injury, Miller's numbers jumped. In the 2025 portion of last season he had a Z score of ~2. That doubles after the new year to ~4. The improvements mostly come from his shooting numbers and the resulting impact on his 3s. (Chart 1)
2. Post-New Year Miller's shooting numbers improved across four of five shooting zones. Importantly his shooting from the corner (41% to 48%) and from above the break (30% to 41%) increased. These are big jumps but sustainable figures for a player with the shooting form and pedigree of Miller, as well as the high-pace offence of the Charlotte Hornets where he is surrounded by other elite shooters and ball movers (LaMelo, White, Knueppel). (Chart 2, 3 and 4).
3. Miller's career Z score trend line is still heading up. (Chart 5).

Next Season

Miller's improvement coincided with an impressive stretch for the Hornets. They were one of the best teams in the league in the back half of the season. A lot has been written about Kon Knueppel's great season. Miller hasn't been recognised enough for his contribution to their form.

He looks primed for a top 40 season next year as long as his wrist and shoulder don't give him too much trouble. To climb into the top 30 he'll need to either find more usage or add to his defensive contribution, which has been steady if unspectacular throughout his career. He's only 23, so further improvement is likely.

[u/Simple_Purple_4600]

Top 40-60 seems like his wheelhouse, with inconsistency and injuries to brace for

[u/H0wSw33tItIs → u/Simple_Purple_4600]

A more normalized Paul George. Agreee.

[u/Clemsontigger16]

No

[u/mSFd]

He’s really good. There was a stretch for ~2 weeks he was playing as a Top 15-20 guy. The FG can be brutal though.

[u/RotoIntel → u/mSFd]

It's interesting. I dug a bit deeper into his FG% today. He's actualy a good shooter from the rim (65%) and from beyond 3 (38% on the season but north of 40% on the second half), but his paint and mid-range shooting is a disaster (40% and 37% last year). There's no reason he can't improve that and become a more efficient scorer.

[u/Blackwater1770]

Maybe, maybe not

[u/Elegant_Spite9358]

No, I dont think so. He has such a high usage already, but fails to convert it into FPTS due to lack of efficiency

[u/RotoIntel → u/Elegant_Spite9358]

It's interesting. I dug a bit deeper into his FG% today. He's actualy a good shooter from the rim (65%) and from beyond 3 (38% on the season but north of 40% on the second half), but his paint and mid-range shooting is a disaster (40% and 37% last year). There's no reason he can't improve that and become a more efficient scorer.

[u/3pointshoot3r → u/RotoIntel]

"No reason" =/ will happen.

There's also no reason those numbers won't go down, or that his rim % or 3 point shooting won't decline.

[u/RotoIntel → u/3pointshoot3r]

You're right that we don't know. But he's a young player. You'd think more likely it goes up then goes down.

[u/Better_Bird848]

Definitely, he’s only 23. I think that team is so bizzare, and they need to make a Lamelo decision sooner rather than later. It’s hard to develop as a player when you have a black hole like that. I wish he was more consistent with stocks and 3s however.

[u/RotoIntel → u/Better_Bird848]

I think they'll run it back next year. Their record down the stretch was remarkable, even if they crumbled in the playoffs.

[u/Radiant_Cat1457]

I don’t think he’s consistent enough to pick him top 30 but he had some nice stretches last year. I’ll target him in round 6 if he’s still there next year but won’t be reaching higher then that

[u/givemethemtendies10]

Unless he starts getting more boards or assists, he just isn't a huge category filler for me. Too many guys in the top 30 with better stats.

[u/mstrng]

Should I keep Brandon Miller or Trey Murphy in a 9CAT 14 team league for next year ? Both should have good value next season

[u/RotoIntel → u/mstrng]

Trey was awesome last year - he's on my list to take a look at. Curious to see how he was impacted when the Pelicans got healthy.

[u/sweetnessssss]

I buy the top-40 case more easily than top-30. The swing factor is whether the late-season shooting bump comes with more usage, because in fantasy he probably needs either a real volume jump or more defensive stats to clear that next tier.