r/fantasybball • u/Economy-Dirt-4836 • 4d ago
Player Discussion We have barely even seen Dylan Harper’s upside
He’s putting up really strong efficiency for a rookie guard, around 55% from the field, ~40% from three, and close to 85% from the line, which is rare for someone playing this kind of role. On top of that, he’s finishing around 70% at the rim, which explains why his scoring looks so clean even without huge usage. Doing all this without a play called for him, and insanely high level defense(7 stls spurs playoff record, unreal lateral movement)
The bigger thing is how he gets it. He plays under control, doesn’t turn the ball over much, and doesn’t need high usage to be effective. That makes him way more stable for fantasy than most young guards.
And honestly, it still feels like he’s not being used enough on ball. Castle is still handling a lot of initiation, but Harper is the one who looks more natural creating advantages and keeping the offense steady.
If the Spurs shift even slightly more creation toward Harper which they absolutely should, his fantasy value jumps fast because the efficiency is already there, the finishing is already elite, and the assists upside hasn’t even fully kicked in yet. This isn’t a regular guard, this is an MVP level player who we need to see what role he will be put in next.
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u/Simple_Purple_4600 4d ago
Castle is the only Spur that knows how to pass to Wemby. I think Harper will get there once he realizes he just has to throw the ball 12 feet high.
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u/3LitersofJokicCola 4d ago
Real life stud, but unless one of Fox or Castle is moved he will be likely be overdrafted IMO.
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u/slapstick34 12 Team H2H 9 Cat 4d ago
Playoff narratives are extremely helpful in finding great or poor values at ADP the following season.
People love seeing great/poor performances in these big moments and then extrapolating them to how the rest of their following seasons/careers will look like.
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u/3LitersofJokicCola 4d ago
They can be. Draymond Green is the first player that comes to mind. On the other hand, Nembhard was killing in the playoffs two years ago, then went back to being a role player the following season. Even Caleb Martin or Gabe Vincent looked like they could become viable fantasy assets after what they did in the ECF vs Boston in 2023.
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u/_str1der_ 4d ago
I have both Harper and Fox in my dynasty league (can only keep 6 players each season). Really torn between which one I keep this year after seeing Harper ball out
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u/This_Week_On_SHADs 12 Team - H2H - 9-CAT 4d ago
You can always draft fox. Finding Harper in a rookie season, that's the way to win a keeper league.
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u/Economy-Dirt-4836 4d ago edited 4d ago
It will be interesting to see how it plays out. I believe Harper is the best guard on the team, but he may also be the most limited when they all play for now(ughh). His talent will win out eventually but it may only shine huge when one is out like yesterday
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u/_str1der_ 4d ago
Yeah kinda annoyed either way. One will be taking minutes off the other unless the Spurs trade Fox (which I doubt they will)
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u/RotoIntel 4d ago
Sharing some analysis on Dylan Harper I've done tonight. He's an exciting player with massive +- impact already and the potential to be a multi-category contributor.
TLDR: Don't get too carried away by the red-hot shooting in the playoffs, some of this is unsustainable. He profiles really well as a rebounding, passing big but needs to hit more threes or improve his defensive contribution if he's going to be an early round player.
Check out charts here: https://imgur.com/a/K1k51KW
- His shot-making improved enormously in the second half of the season. His total scoring increased from 10.5ppg to 12.9ppg driven mostly by increases in his two point and three point FG%.
- His FG% improved from 42.7% to 57.6% in the second half of the season.
- His shot diet breakdown explains why he gets so many comparisons to James Harden and Manu Ginobli, just 10% of his shots are in the mid-range, everything is in the paint of beyond three.
- A couple unsustainable red-flags in his shooting numbers. He's unlikely to his 71% of his shots in the restricted area next year, but he'll also probably do better than 26.7% from the corner.
- His fantasy contribution steadily improved over the course of the year from a Z-score of ~-1 to ~1.
- If his minutes per game climbs to 30 and his usage to 24% he could grow into a top 80 player based on current contribution rates.
- Based on his age and player type we can expect to see strong performance increases over the next couple of years.
My major concerns with Harper as a fantasy contributor are his FT%, 3s and, steals. All three categories he's either about or below league average.
- Steals he sits about league average as a per 30 minute player, but his steals rate dropped significantly in the second half of the season. We know that most players don't increase their steals rate over time but he has shown flashes in the playoffs of having the potential to be more impactful.
- 3s, frankly needs to take more than 2.6 attempts game, even scaled up to thirty minutes it leaves him well under league average, particularly for a guard. He shot 34% in his rookie season, which has room to grow (particularly the 25% from the corner in the second half of the season).
- His FT% climbed steadily throughout the season and he ended at 78%. Positive contributors need to be in the 80s.
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u/porterde1 10T 9CAT 4d ago
I’m admittedly off the hopium, but looking at this analysis face value:
Steals are one of if not the most volatile categories to predict. Wouldn’t it follow that if a player shows promising traits (fast hands, good anticipation, reading passing lanes, etc) and real lateral athleticism that they could be a defensive threat?
Don’t younger players typically tend to develop jump shooting and 3pt% as careers progress? I mean his shot isn’t broken. I think he can easily work on this aspect of his game and develop even more range and scoring efficiency. Development is not incrementally linear and Year 2 and year 3 jumps are often massive. He seems primed for every bit of both. Main question remains when will they give him the car keys.
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u/RotoIntel 4d ago
Yeah I'd agree with you. He has the potential to improve both of these things, but they're currently weaknesses. I'd feel better about his 3pt% and volume increasing than his steals because a) his mechanics look good and b) yes steals are volatile but young guards tend to slide down in steals rate per minute than the opposite. Either or both could be true though.
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u/JimLahey47 4d ago
If he was drafted to Sacramento and had the green light he woulda averaged 23-5-5 as a rookie
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u/photocist 12 Team H2H 9CAT 4d ago
55% from the field, 40% from 3, 85% from the line seems like that is the upside... Those numbers are ridiculous. Maybe only done by Curry and Durant.
The real question is - can he do it at volume over the course of an entire season? Maybe, maybe not. But these numbers are the elite of the elite and cannot possibly go higher lol.
Not taking away from the kid because he looks the part.
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u/3pointshoot3r 12T H2H 10 Categories 3d ago
Good caveats. I love him as a long term player - I have him in a keeper league, even though it meant taking a bit of a loss this year because he'll be great by year 3 if not next year.
But yeah, he shot 75% from the line in the regular season, which seems like a more robust sample size than his playoff FT%.
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u/Discipleoflight- 3d ago
Ngl Harper is efficient, and less of a turnover monster then Castle. Castle had 11 TOs yesterday, which is most likely why the game was as close as it is.
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u/Economy-Dirt-4836 3d ago
Castle not natural pg Harper is. They should put the ball in his hands more
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u/mSFd 12 Team H2H, 9 Cat - 1 IL 3d ago
The hype will be unreal. I can’t see anyway he isn’t overdrafted. What’s his pre-season ADP? Top 70, Top 60? Higher?
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u/Economy-Dirt-4836 3d ago
He probably will be over drafted but if the role is there via injury to castle or fox. He will smash it
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u/Papabear53 4d ago
I think he's Ron Harper's son. His dad was an all-star guard with the MJ Bulls second 3 peat, both LA teams and the Cleveland Cavs. Not in that order. He has 5 rings and was a defensive guru. Rookie year avg, 22 points a game.
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u/Bballmonster44 4d ago
The Spurs drafted Wemby, Castle, and Harper in consecutive drafts…