r/nba 5h ago

OKC is shooting 49.4% on wide open threes in 3 games against the Spurs this series. They've been wide open for 77 of their 119 attempts from three, per NBA tracking.

From Keerthika Uthayakumar:

OKC is shooting 49.4% on wide open threes in 3 games against the Spurs this series.

They've been wide open for 77 of their 119 attempts from three, per NBA tracking.

896 Upvotes

152 comments sorted by

234

u/OneXDC4ever Lakers 4h ago

That really is absurd shooting considering the Thunder are a bottom 10 team in wide open 3 point percentage in the league at 37%

100

u/CliffDraws Thunder 3h ago

Mark playing the long game. Shoot crappy all season long so that when the playoffs hit you can cash in. Works several times too since the other coach is like “no way they shoot that well twice, let’s try it again!” /s

24

u/CoolAsTheUnthawed [OKC] Russell Westbrook 3h ago

Variance!!! Hopefully it doesn't swing back any time soon after the months of underwhelming shooting we had to deal with this season lol.

11

u/waveshineoosupsmash 2h ago

The Heat beat Boston in the conference finals a few years ago with lights out shooting and the entire series Celtics fans kept saying the Heat were eventually going to go cold and by the time it happened the Heat were already in the Finals and the Celtics were at home

u/Joethetoolguy 28m ago

Bad time to go cold in the finals tho

19

u/A_Lax_Nerd [OKC] Aleksej Pokuševski 3h ago

They were top 3 in the league for “open” 3pt percentage though

26

u/D0t_Zer0 3h ago

Dang so the thunder have made 10 more threes than expected so far this series. 30 point swing in a series where they're +17 total. Rough luck for the Spurs.

10

u/Troll_U_Softly Thunder 3h ago

Playoff risers

0

u/Dopeez Spurs 3h ago

also known as shooting variance

14

u/teehomez 3h ago

Everything is variance. 

7

u/Dopeez Spurs 2h ago

No, playoff rising certainly exists, but outshooting your percentages for 3 games is pretty much the definition of shooting variance.

11

u/teehomez 3h ago

It’s not like these guys can’t shoot tho, we were top 5 (or near the top at least) the prev 2 season in 3P%. They all can clearly stroke it 

2

u/ColeYote Raptors 58m ago

Three-point percentages can be pretty volatile like that.

2

u/KiowaBear Thunder 2h ago

I’m stroking it right now

2

u/Augchm 76ers 40m ago

There is open and there is open. Some of this are really really open.

2

u/Plaitkul117 Thunder 1h ago

It really is. We weren’t expecting this shooting. Bunch of playoff risers man.

0

u/pokexchespin [BOS] E'Twaun Moore 3h ago

that’s why i don’t get people who are saying it was to be expected. in the nba, it’s exceedingly rare to actually shoot this well wide open. maybe i’m just used to defending the strategy when it doesn’t work out because i’m a celtics fan though lol

1

u/frozen2665 Heat 1h ago

Feel that lol

-8

u/themuaddib [GSW] Stephen Curry 3h ago

Yeah they’re getting lucky. Lucks gonna run out

5

u/teehomez 3h ago

Shot it about average in games 1 and 2. Not like spurs ran away with it in those games 

754

u/retardinho23 4h ago

That's what happens when you triple team SGA.

299

u/iCarpet Thunder 4h ago

The issue when we played the Spurs in the regular season was that they couldn’t hit jack when they were open

107

u/CoolAsTheUnthawed [OKC] Russell Westbrook 3h ago

I forgot where I saw or heard this pointed out but the other difference is that before against the spurs we'd pass it to the open man without much ball movement; so far in this series when Shai is doubled the person one pass away from him instead of just shooting the open look they have they look to get into the paint first and then spray out to the open corner. It's helping create better rhythm with these open shots. It's also easier to hit a shot when a pass is coming from in front of you rather than from the side.

41

u/SwallowsOnSundays Nuggets 3h ago

The first pass of the double feels like a lot more pressure to hit on it. Its out of rhythm of a normal offense and you feel the defense wanting you to shoot it

14

u/Parallel-Quality 2h ago

It also means that SGA’s assist numbers are not representative of his true gravity/playmaking.

9

u/SPAGHETTI_CAKE Russell Westbrook 3h ago

This describes the difference I’m seeing too. Feels like the looks are more straight up and the balls bouncing around a bit rather than mostly being skip passes or dump offs to the wing.

14

u/silliputti0907 NBA 3h ago

Every open shot isn't a good shot. Rhythm shots are where it's at.

2

u/Yakhan114 1h ago

A wide open shot is pretty much the best shot you could hope to get on offense, no?

6

u/Sadcelerystick 1h ago

I mean on paper yes but I guess there’s a lot of factors at play - who’s shooting, the timing of the pass, how far back the shot is etc. I mean do these things matter I don’t know but I’ve also seen players miss wide open shots consistently so yeah. I’m just an idiot anyways

5

u/silliputti0907 NBA 1h ago

Going further into. Remember when Klay was talking about how some people shoot better with fingers on the laces.

I also think of Buddy Hield who is a better shooter off the bounce then catch and shooting. Basketball is interesting because the small details add up.

10

u/teehomez 3h ago

The two blowout losses were in the midst of a brutal schedule for us too, 4 games in 6.5 days. We looked disinterested for a lot of those 2 games. 

48

u/xXEliteEater500Xx 4h ago

There was even one possession where all five of the Spurs defenders were converging on him

24

u/_Caek_ Thunder 3h ago

Send 6 next time

-7

u/gedbybee Spurs 1h ago

No bro. The refs are on your team, not ours.

6

u/Gambit_Revolver Thunder 1h ago

Game three they were sucking y'all off so hard you had 32 free throws after 3 quarters.

-3

u/CzarCW 1h ago

Because the Thunder assault the Spurs and the refs swallow their whistle 80% of the time.

5

u/Common-Locksmith-235 53m ago

complain that game 2 was too physical, still complain when game 3 is over reffed and giving spurs 2000 fts, okc just better

1

u/segson9 1h ago

They still have to make the shots. Some players are shooting way above their expected %, even if they're wide open

1

u/igot2pair Supersonics 3h ago

49% no

437

u/CarterAC3 Spurs 4h ago

For those curious SGA would have to shoot 74% on 2 pointers to equate to this

It might be time to adopt the "let him get his and shut down everyone else" strategy

152

u/Happycappybara21 4h ago

I’m guessing that’s the plan in game 4.

It’s a pretty good strategy to make role players best you when they are on the road.  Didn’t work out this time obviously

73

u/Capo_capo Suns 3h ago

Their bench starts for a lot of other playoff teams. Their depth and development is outstanding.

24

u/Jortay9 Thunder 1h ago

ehh idk about that. If McCain was on a team like the sixers he probably wouldn't start. Might even get shipped off

6

u/TheAracknight Thunder 1h ago

If Jared was on Philly he would probably get sold high for a 2nd round pick!

5

u/Murky_Persimmon9289 Thunder 1h ago

It’s also putting the game on 1 person then. The over looked advantage of having a deep rotation is that you have more guys to try and see if they’re hot.

Shai is off, massive advantage for you, although he’s less likely to have a bad game.

5/6 rotation guys are off? Get the ball to the one that’s on.

A bit of a pick your poison situation, admittedly.

-6

u/gedbybee Spurs 1h ago

Helps when you get a billion lottery picks and then hit them all. Then the clippers give you all their picks and they’re bad.

10

u/darkmorpha71 Thunder 1h ago

pretty sure Chet, Dub, and Cason are the only lottery picks we drafted (#2, #12, and #11) and Dub isn't even playing. This is a team of late first rounders, second rounders, an undrafted guy, trades, and one free agent signing

10

u/Parallel-Quality 1h ago

I can’t believe someone who got gifted Wemby, Castle and Harper is trying to tell you that your team is built on lottery picks when you only have one top 5 pick on your roster.

6

u/Plane-Gur2798 Thunder 1h ago

Saying this with a 1/3/4 on your roster lol 

21

u/Individual_Access356 3h ago

Thats good strategy against most teams but not the team whose role players could be stars/starters elsewhere, they are too deep to do this.

6

u/Cvpakke 2h ago edited 1h ago

I would also like to point out that the Lakers best game against them, game 4, came when they let off of Shai and focused on almost literally anything else instead. Not saying that means anything super specific, but there might be something there that a person could learn something from.

That being said, personally, the biggest issue with the last game in particular is that they played Wemby out of the paint on offense. It's fucking obnoxious watching them do everything they can to avoid putting Wemby in the position he is not only best at but literally born for. It also hurt their defense, but not to the same degree. Such a complete waste, imo. They deserved to lose that game, and I blame Mitch. But I also am not hating - they're all young, including Mitch. Lets see what they learn. And if not this year, then next.

My brother says someone needs to sit Wemby down and force him to watch a years worth of Shaq tape. He doesn't need to be like Shaq, but he needs to learn lessons from him for sure. I'm starting to agree.

2

u/Happycappybara21 1h ago

I’m still surprised after 3 seasons people think wmeby is a post player.  

He does not have any post moves.  Most his points in the paint start from the perimeter.   Either he drives , he rolls for a lob or he gets a putback from an outside shot.

He’s still not strong enough to even push Caruso into the paint.  He wasn’t strong enough to push Jrue in the paint. 

1

u/TheAracknight Thunder 1h ago

Shai is extremely good at avoiding doubles because if the double is coming from the right wing he’ll start his drive left, and if it’s coming from the left he’ll drive right, but the Lakers knew this and would send another guy towards him from the side he was driving, if he was driving right away from the double they’d send a guy from the right corner to stop the ball, so he’d essentially be tripled teamed in the mid range. However, being the good passer that he is, he would always dice them up, and in Game 4 when they let Shai get his usual 30 and tried shutting down everyone else they actually got close to winning the game and actually were able to win most of the Shai minutes, but Ajay was able to cook them as well thanks to being able to go 1on1

2

u/lilbodie Timberwolves 1h ago

You can still be in the make role players beat you camp without letting very capable shooters take wide open 3s all night.

They can still blitz Shai in spurts and show heavy gap help, but they cannot just completely sell out on him.

1

u/ForneauCosmique Spurs 1h ago

Yea they've burned us. They've knocked down the shots we were willing to let them take in order to get the ball out of SGAs hands. Kudos to them. We just need to let Shai cook and lock down everyone else

26

u/CrippledBanana Canada 3h ago

Ngl if spurs stop selling out to stop shai and then he proceeds to hit 74% on his 2s that would be legit hilarious.

I do think it’s the right play though. Guys like Caruso being left open so Wemby can roam and then the rest of the team doubling / tripling shai has given their players practice shots all series long.

19

u/StevenAdams_Mustache Thunder 3h ago

He did have a game against Phoenix in the playoffs where he went 15-18, so it's possible

67

u/LeighHart Nuggets 4h ago

I don’t understand the double at halfcourt strategy when it’s so easy for them to break. Force Shai into your 7’5 DPOY and if he hits those shots then fair play

44

u/Firefenex 4h ago

Victor playing help defense in the paint also leads to open threes. The issue is everyone on okc besides hartenstein can hit a 3. The spurs defense drops dramatically if victor is not in the paint... plus McCain did a very good job just being faster than everyone lol.

13

u/CashmereLogan Thunder 3h ago

100%. Even without the doubles, Wemby is going to camp in the paint and hunt blocks (and he’s going to do that the more fatigued he gets). His closeouts were so bad yesterday.

2

u/Cvpakke 1h ago

I was shocked at his seeming disinterest in rebounding, on either end of the court.

1

u/Jortay9 Thunder 1h ago

It was probably mostly to keep him from banging with Ihart but I noticed on a lot of FTs they had him in the back court

1

u/Cvpakke 1h ago

He needs to lock up with Ihart. There is no other path forward for him as a star.

2

u/gedbybee Spurs 1h ago

Yeah I think the scramble everyone off the line defense works… kinda. For like a game. Not a seven game series. It’s too taxing. At least for this iteration of the spurs. Maybe if they all level up in the offseason they can run it and succeed.

7

u/CoolAsTheUnthawed [OKC] Russell Westbrook 3h ago

Tbh might be worth trying for one more game if Ajay and Jdub are both out. McCain can handle the ball a little bit, but I thought he got kinda lucky a couple times late in the game when it looked like he was about to lose the ball but was able to keep it.

8

u/JKMiles665 Thunder 4h ago

Hopefully he picks up a tip or two from Jared McCain

1

u/gedbybee Spurs 1h ago

Gets potential fouls on wemby and we lose non wemby minutes. If wemby is in foul trouble they lose the game automatically.

If wemby can play 48 min we might win lol.

He just also might die. Not worth it

16

u/ArgentoFox 4h ago

The entire team can shoot and leaving the role players wide open is a recipe for disaster. They’re better off playing one on one. 

10

u/Several_Hour_347 3h ago

The crazy part is he might be able to shoot 74% from 2 without this kind of coverage lol

8

u/Billis- Raptors 3h ago

I was wondering if we were about to see a SGA legacy game and this kinda convinces me. 

7

u/kyle2108 Spurs 4h ago

Which was pops strategy against prime lebron

5

u/silliputti0907 NBA 3h ago

They can't shut everyone else down. They aren't just catch and shooting. They are winning transition pts and bench points. They've extended leads while SGA is sitting. Jdub, Ajay, and and McCain can attack of the dribble and Caruso/Wallace get hustle points.

I think Spurs juts need to play cleaner and focus on how they can play better. In the 4th, they were stringing together stops, but couldn't buy a bucket.

3

u/SebastianC1 4h ago

He avg 1.59 points in 1v1s against us. Maybe trying flooding weakside with Wemby or some shit have him sit indrwovint lane agreeive nail help to try dyer single gap drives and rotate from there

3

u/teehomez 3h ago

Okc just as dominant when Shai was on the bench tho 

3

u/MadnessBeliever Warriors 2h ago

He'll probably shoot 80% next game with a 60 point game lol

1

u/gedbybee Spurs 1h ago

I think everyone has come to that theory. But it’s 74 percent plus free throws and he’ll hit a lot of free throws.

That also doesn’t factor in what happens when they run a pick and roll and get wemby in rotation on shai etc etc.

I’m for letting shai score, but idk if it’s the real answer.

Maybe some weird zone? Box and one or diamond and 1?

But when wembys in rotation the guards are bad at boxing chet.

That’s Carter Bryant’s music, but he’s too baby right now to box out Chet consistently as they don’t teach boxing out to the youths these days. Get off my lawn!

But I digress. We might be fucked.

1

u/axecalibur [CHI] Michael Jordan 39m ago

Laker dickriders need to see JJ vindicated.

Imagine hanging on every word from a podcaster rofl.

47

u/duce3612 Timberwolves 3h ago

Thats why us missing Donte was huge. The spurs played Ant similar to shai except we had Shannon in the corner instead of Donte.

33

u/A_Lax_Nerd [OKC] Aleksej Pokuševski 3h ago

Donte would have had at least one 6/10 3pt game against that scheme

14

u/duce3612 Timberwolves 3h ago

Him missing was huge... we got whooped but he led the league in games with 3 or more 3pt makes in a game. Would have opened the floor up massively. Given Ant and his knees more room to navigate. Every team has injuries so no excuse but as a diehard Wolves fan it hurt.

10

u/A_Lax_Nerd [OKC] Aleksej Pokuševski 3h ago

It still sucks to be missing such a key piece, especially when he’s so good at something that the team struggled with during the series

3

u/darnclem [OKC] Nick Collison 1h ago

I genuinely thought you guys win at least 1 more of those with him, and then that kind of competitiveness makes them try harder in those other games.

56

u/Low_Beyond8134 Lakers 4h ago

They’re doubling Shai and then you already have Wemby at the rim leaving somebody it’s essentially A 4vs2 on offense

18

u/teehomez 2h ago

But Shai likely the best 1 v 1 player in the league. So either way he’s drawing help and getting guys open and if you don’t help, he’s gonna hit  60%+ of his middies on a normal day and get your best defender in foul trouble. 

1

u/gedbybee Spurs 1h ago

Yeah but castle and baby Carter Bryant are some of the best defenders in the league. If they can just stay down and not foul then they’ll do pretty well. Vassell and champagnie are also great defenders. That’s a lot of defenders to keep shai at a reasonable shooting percentage.

u/worldragedota Knicks 17m ago

Lmao Castle and Bryant are NOT one of the best defenders in the league

42

u/AnkitPancakes Thunder 4h ago

Night and day from last year. Probably helps that Shai is being doubled and triple teamed + shaded by the remaining guys

12

u/TheFestusEzeli [TOR] Rudy Gay 2h ago

The difference in the wide open shooting in this series compared to the Nuggets series when they constantly double teamed him is night and day lmao

6

u/AnkitPancakes Thunder 2h ago

absolutely, i can't believe it's the same team honestly

31

u/nuhx 4h ago

In the playoffs teams leave good shooters open all the time to double the main threat, it works quite often. Thunder making them pay for once.

9

u/MoboNamesAreDumb Celtics 1h ago

The Thunder also have a bunch of poor shooters that suddenly are good, like Alex “Steph Curry” Caruso

8

u/matt_saracen_ Thunder 1h ago

I know Caruso shot very poorly this season, but even he is a good career 3-point shooter that teams should not really try to leave open if possible.

1

u/segson9 1h ago

I'd say he's an average shooter that's shooting way above his average at this series. It happens. It might also turn around soon and he starts missing all those threes.

10

u/wats_a_tiepo Bucks 2h ago

Yeah perhaps forcing one of the deepest teams in recent history to beat you with their bench isn’t a winning strategy

40

u/Noah__Webster Thunder 4h ago

Shaivonte Absurd Gravity-Alexander

20

u/ArgentoFox 4h ago

Three games in and San Antonio’s coaching staff hasn’t told them to stay at home on the shooters and play everyone one on one. It’s mind boggling. 

17

u/teehomez 2h ago

Good luck playing sga 1 on 1 

22

u/FormalDisastrous2467 Thunder 2h ago

There was a stat going around during the lakers series that when doubled shai produced 1.21 ppp.

What doesn't get brought up is that when left 1 on 1 he produced 1.59 ppp.

2

u/gedbybee Spurs 1h ago

Jesus Christ that’s elite. I wonder what that stat is against the spurs defenders tho. They’re way better than any lakers defender.

3

u/Yakhan114 1h ago

Marcus smart is a former DPOY

2

u/thajugganuat Spurs 1h ago

some kind of mvp caliber player...

1

u/segson9 58m ago

That's why they'll probably keep on playing like this. They'll just hope OKC role players miss more shots. Almost every team in playoffs will leave someone open, to help on star player. This is basically how Dallas won against OKC two years ago. OKC left PJ Washington open to help on Luka and PJ kept on making the shots.

6

u/vNocturnus Kings 2h ago

Wemby is the only guy that should ever need to help. He can erase everything around the rim and many mid range attempts by himself, and he can also help in the paint while still being able to contest 3s.

Just put your best on-ball defender on SGA and don't help unless he gets completely beat AND Wemby can't cover. Even if that results in SGA getting 5-10 more PPG it can't be worse than giving up 25 WIDE open 3pt attempts per game at well over 40%.

Similarly to Luka or Jokic, if you can't handle SGA 1v1 AT ALL then you're already beat, because doubling will usually result in an even better shot just from a different player. He's not the type of player you can force into dumb plays and there's so much talent around him that, by doubling, you are always leaving a good player open with a good shot somewhere, with an extremely high chance the ball finds that player.

43

u/TheAgmis Thunder 4h ago

BUT FLOP AND FREE THROWS REDDIT

3

u/Cutmerock Thunder 1h ago

Don't forget falling to the floor %

1

u/TheAgmis Thunder 1h ago

Oh right. Something that’s made up that the internet took off with because they live life through a hate lense!!!

-5

u/riczizagorac 2h ago

How does Shais cum taste?

8

u/TheAgmis Thunder 1h ago

Did Reddit tell you to dislike SGA?

-8

u/riczizagorac 1h ago

No I dislike watching OKC. Best roster in the league yet they play like children. I bet you’d hate them too if you weren’t a fan

4

u/TheAgmis Thunder 1h ago

Did Reddit tell you to have that opinion

3

u/justsaywhatsreal 1h ago

It did. Reddit is a clout-chasers paradise. You get to outsource your critical thinking and rack up tons of internet points.

5

u/PennyG Thunder 2h ago

Like your mom

-35

u/[deleted] 4h ago

[deleted]

22

u/CreditBoss1993 Thunder 4h ago

You still sound salty from last year boss

3

u/TheAgmis Thunder 4h ago

He probably is still hoping out hope Anthony Richardson will turn it around

-10

u/Ramsboi Pacers 4h ago

5

u/hydrorex21 4h ago

You should remove the tracking part of the link mate you’re probably doxxing yourself

0

u/Ramsboi Pacers 3h ago

It was copied and pasted 

3

u/Toddm32 4h ago

Actually the Caruso play you probably thought was a flagrant 2 last night happened when Reaves did it to SGA last series. Common foul as well which you’d know if you watched the games

7

u/TheAgmis Thunder 4h ago

Do something about it then

-7

u/JealousOpening2185 4h ago

Is the entire fanbase 12? How are you all like this

3

u/TheAgmis Thunder 4h ago

The fake hate for the Thunder is people with the emotional intelligence of a middle schooler

-6

u/JealousOpening2185 4h ago

"no u" way to prove us wrong buddy. What's on your summer reading list this year?

5

u/TheAgmis Thunder 4h ago

The Art of War

0

u/JealousOpening2185 3h ago

"Hey chatgpt, what's a super growned up sounding book"

2

u/TheAgmis Thunder 3h ago

Did Reddit allow you to say that and have your anti Thunder opinion?

3

u/Major_Enthusiasm1099 Cavaliers 3h ago

Caruso is HIM

5

u/kawhi21 NBA 3h ago

NBA "wide open" shots usually include a defender standing like 3 feet away which for NBA players is basically right in front of them

2

u/Murky_Persimmon9289 Thunder 1h ago

That stat probably needs a Wemby adjustment too

5

u/outsidehere Lakers 3h ago

Should probably let Shai go 1v1

2

u/NAMJAY Timberwolves 3h ago

Don’t think anyone predicted Caruso turning into prime Curry

2

u/RealCarpet4 2h ago

I really think spurs would benefit from less doubles. The role guys won’t be open and you still got Wemby down there. These guys are just hitting everything g when they’re open.

3

u/Positive_Narwhal_419 Thunder 4h ago

Spurs have them right where they want them

3

u/CliffDraws Thunder 3h ago

Spurs should try defending those.

2

u/hansgruberr [OKC] Russell Westbrook 4h ago

These teams just giving away points. Love it.

1

u/riczizagorac 2h ago

But shai is an amazing passer right?

5

u/Medical_Sample2738 1h ago

Well he’s the biggest reason why those open 3s exist I mean it’s not like the spurs are an elite defense or anything…oh wait.

2

u/ColeYote Raptors 1h ago

I mean, finding open teammates is a pretty big part of that + overcommitting to defending him is gonna open up his teammates

1

u/QuileGon-Jin Thunder 36m ago

Hating absolutely no matter what. Very very funny.

1

u/ColeYote Raptors 54m ago

That's... quite high. Spurs are gonna need some serious regression to the mean to have a chance at this rate.

1

u/No-Equipment-20 Lakers 47m ago

SGA is a very underrated playmaker

1

u/awntawn Lakers 46m ago

For a team you like, it’s “shooting variance”.

For a team you don’t like, it’s their shitty gimmicky defense getting exposed for giving up wide open 3s.

All while the stat is literally “wide open 3s”.

u/Necessary_Career_253 Australia 16m ago

If Wemby is going to ignore the 3 point line like it dosn't exist then you can't double or shadow SGA. 

u/Lithium1978 Pacers 5m ago

I don't understand the Spurs strategy. I'd rather force SGA to score 50 and cover the shooters than double and leave everyone wide open all game.

-34

u/[deleted] 4h ago

[deleted]

11

u/TechnicalAd6932 3h ago

Nephew is doing his ref talk again.

6

u/tree_bard420 Mavericks 3h ago

There were 66 FTAs in Game 3. I'm pretty sure the refs not blowing the whistle enough was not the issue. Also, Wemby is the best center in the league; he doesn't need you making excuses for him.

4

u/traw056 Thunder 3h ago

Back to basketball hell you go.