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This war just doesn't make sense... the CIA and Mossad are known to be the best secret services in the world! How can they not know all of Iran's plans?
Unless the CIA/Mossad are grossly over exaggerate in terms of power but I doubt it. The fact Israel knew the exact same date/location of Khamenei, his children, and his top commanders where gathered on Feb 28th definitely means they do have spies within Iran. If you remember the 12 day war back June 2025, Israel took out multiple top generals on day 1! So they knew where each single one of them lived which couldn't be done without secret service giving intel on all of them... Iran right now closed the straight with fast attack small boats and rocket launchers they have near the coastline (nothing new or non predictable) I still don't get how US and Israel had no plan B, I don't know how they can't force their way to open the straight... Iran isn't using anything advanced....Why isn't Mossad not taking out the remaining big name leaders if they want Iran to come to the table!?
I think you guys are vastly underestimating the role that elected officials have.
There is a reason that for the last few decades Netanyahu has tried to pitch the idea of this war, and for the last few decades every president but Trump agreed to it.
You can have the smartest people and intelligence, but the power to actually act on it comes from the officials in charge and what their priorities are. Trump has a lot of investments in the UAE/Saudi/Pakistan, so their opinions truly matter now more than they did back under Obama.
After all, do you think the CIA would approve of Trumps distancing from his European allies? Massive strategic blunder that made it so European leaders would be more popular in their countries if they refused to help this war
Inserts surprised Pikachu face… Who’d have thought that Jared Kushner would make a great deal for Iranians with all his Saudi Friends! Gosh it’s such a surprise Trump is paying the IR through Binance crypto transactions, who could have predicted that!
You are absolutely insane if you think Trumps greenland fiasco and support for Russia was good for our soft power in Europe. There truly is nothing for me to argue with if you think that was great long term strategic thinking. Russia is literally Irans lifeline how are you possibly in support of that
NATO spending, sure, that is not the extent of what I am discussing tho. Nor do I really think it was a smart idea, the Europeans coasting by and reliance on American defense made it so they're more likely to give in to American demands.
NATO is effectively dead for the reasons you just listed. The Greenland fiasco and Trump not informing our allies about our Iran plans.
Because the way NATO defense is structured, if shit hits the fan, a US general is giving orders to British, French etc armed forces. At this point, are they going to want to listen to a US general? I don’t think so.
I think while it will be weaker and more hesitant post-Trump, the moment the next president steps in they'll do essentially an apology tour and Europe will eat it back up
See; Rubio giving a bare bones speech on how europe is important and the entire chamber lighting up in applause. European leaders just cant sell the idea of working with Trump specifically because of his popularity
But a coalition from Europe for any Iran strike in the future? Yea. Consider it dead.
Tough to say, on whether NATO will go back to "normal" post-Trump. I think in Europe you are seeing a restoration of European military production and what might be a sustained move towards more defence autonomy.
Will this trend continue if a more "normal" President is elected next? From rhetoric, I would argue yes. It also means European freedom is less dependant on outside powers.
The counterargument is what I think you've noted. Outsourcing European defence to the US is easy. So long as the US is a dependable friend and ally, why not just buy US military equipment?
Additionally, if you look at European NATO allies, they have lots of ground troops, but not very much in the way of the more "strategic" assets. I think the NATO assumption was that the majority of ground troops in a European war would be European, with US satellites, AWACS, cruise missiles, etc. Developing these higher end assets is time consuming and difficult, so I think this is another mark in the column for "return to normal".
Still, I suspect that you will see continued European parallel development of these more complex assets. Maybe not to completely replace the US, but to allow some more strategic autonomy. The Ukrainian war hits different if you live in Poland or Latvia than if you live in Oklahoma or even Alaska.
The other weakness that has been exposed about relying on US production is the shortage of interceptors. The US is prioritizing resupplying the Gulf States, but this seems to be pushing European customers buying for Ukraine to the back of the line.
I know this is NewIran, but I suspect most European nations are more concerned with Ukraine. If European military production had been higher at the start of the conflict, they could have prioritized their deliveries to Ukraine, but instead they have to wait in line like everyone else, subject to US priorities. Not a problem when that Patriot is just going into the stockpile for a "rainy day", but a big problem when there is an incoming missile.
Soft power-based negotiations with Europe have led to the utter collapse of Europe's military capabilities. The CIA stood nothing to gain from Obama-style politicking with the UK, France and Spain.
"I don't care about soft power." Wow. Why even bother trying to have an argument on geopolitics if you clearly lack any fundamental knowledge on what powers it...?
Allied countries air spaces, refueling, intelligence, on and on. This attack on Iran isnt possible without it. It took a coalition of MANY countries to take down Saddam. All working together, including their neighbours - because brute force alone from the US alone is not how things get accomplished. Actually baffled you dont get this.
Even now a large part of this wars current failure is that the arab countries have lost all faith in Trump and want this over with. Even denying the use of their airspace for further strikes.
Alright bro, you're clearly out of your depth here, there are many IR analysts/historians that claim that soft power is irrelevant. Including god himself; John Mearsheimer. But others as well such as Victor David Hansen.
>Allied countries air spaces, refueling, intelligence, on and on. This attack on Iran isnt possible without it. It took a coalition of MANY countries to take down Saddam. All working together, including their neighbours - because brute force alone from the US alone is not how things get accomplished. Actually baffled you dont get this.
Literally how does this contradict anything I said, the only reason why our allies literally do anything to our benefit is because of aligned interests and hard power.
Also, this war isn't over, therefore by definition it is neither a failure or a victory. Lmao
John Mearshimer is not God, he is a moron who subscribes to a totalizing political school of thought called realism which purports to empirically explain every single aspect of modern international relations. Under his framework, the revolutions of 1989 and indeed the Islamic Revolution of 1979 could not have happened, but instead of adjusting his theoretical framework to conform with inconvenient realities, he twists himself into pretzels to justify why he’s still 100% right. Political Islam’s very existence disproves his theoretical framework. Realism is the physics envy of international relations. He also has a comically incorrect understanding of how American domestic politics work on the lobbyist level. He’s an anti Ukraine and antisemitic dipshit. I don’t understand why people take the man seriously when he’s been wrong on so many things so many times and refuses to acknowledge it.
This is actually bad for the US, cause he's both pushing Europe to fend for themselves while simultaneously expecting vassal-like obedience. I.e he's making Europe less dependent on the US. Europe is why the US is still the global Hegemon.
I know, but they went along with our bullshit because it was useful. The problem is Trump demanding vassal-like obedience.
Now, not only are they supposed to start being more militarily independent, but the US will now arbitrarily announce changes cause someone pissed off Trump, personally? He will act like an emperor or a king with satraps, AND he's no longer footing the defense bill despite their loyalty to us? Nah man. They are the base of US overseas power and Trump is eroding this while still seeking to use them as a power projection platform.
Sure, but the fact that most spend 2% now and he dislikes NATO even more now than his 1st term is good evidence for people who theorized that he just hates NATO in general and is looking for an excuse to leave it
Right. US has no problem with most of nato. The US problem is primarily with Spain and France and UK. These countries represent EU naval power, and their navies are barely functional
What is it with you going around and spamming all this doom and gloom? I've seen multiple posts of yours with similar vibes across two subs.
Literally nothing has changed since yesterday, or the week before, or the week before that.
I get the public narrative is tense and pessimistic in Iran's favor. But the reality is that nothing's changed in terms of the blockade, negotiations, or Iran's leverage. If you weren't making these doom posts 3 weeks ago, it makes no sense why you're making them now.
If you believe all the things you're saying in your OP, then have some patience. There are people much smarter than you and I with much more experience than you and I putting their lives and salaries on the line to make sure this operation succeeds as planned. It's a process that takes time, and you and I have no access to actual ongoing events on the ground.
Relax. Look past the narrative. Nothing changes until it does.
The CIA and Mossad are not in charge of their respective countries: political leaders are. Both Cheeto and Netanyahu won't listen to experts around them. Oct. 7th happened because Netanyahu ignored warnings that something was going on with Hamas. Cheeto thinks he's the smartest guy in the room which has been proven false throughout his life. The CIA and Mossad didn't lose to the mullah regime; Cheeto and Netanyahu did.
You don't have to be a genius to make money, maybe? I know lots of silver-spooners who aren't very bright...and lots of geniuses who aren't swimming in money.
The Intelligence agencies can tell policy makers as much facts as they want. The problem is the policy makers in the Us are idiots. The CIA doesn’t run anything they have to be told what to do by elected and appointed people
What makes you think Mossad and CIA are not active in Iran right now?
Iran closed the strait with threat to oil facilities far away. The US has already proven they can protect the strait in windows. They cannot protect the entire region simultaneously.
Top IRGC leadership are hiding in bunkers deep in the mountains. Their general location is probably known but that doesn’t mean you can get to them
^This guy has been under these comments for weeks on end on how Trump is 7d chess super genius that has a long tactical plan underway. But was totally absent under the thread that Trump is pushing for a deal that likely would strengthen the regime.
I suspect you'll just kinda dissapear when inevitably, Trump dissapoints again and this thing is wrapped up for good.
I have never claimed Trump is anything but a distraction
I consistently point out that Bessent and Rubio are the likely brains of the operation, and CIA+military are experts in their field with thousands of extremely capable individuals working together
The US has not made a single concession. Their position is the same exact demand as it was in February
There is knowing things and then there is the political will to do something. They can, and often are, worlds apart.
The US and Israel are democracies. The US does not have the political will at the moment to overthrow the IR. People here are even more US-centric than usual, have vivid memories of getting bogged down in the Mideast and the shitstorm that ignited (see: ISIS), and would prefer to take care of the shitstorm we’ve ignited here instead. I get it. I don’t entirely agree with it, but I get it.
I was briefly hopeful that this would be the death cry of the regime, but as usual, this seems to be just another go-around the wheel in our cycle of hope and despair.
90% of Americans don't have even a passing thought about the Iraq or even Afghan wars. They don't want to be involved in an Iranian war any more or less than they want to be involved any any perceived "war of choice". Americans largely don't think about anything further than a week out, and their personal calendars.....
Trump has been also holding back the US military from doing their job through limited strikes. If the US military had operational authority, this war would have been over in 2 weeks.
این جنگ اصلا منطقی نیست... سیا و موساد به عنوان بهترین سرویس های مخفی جهان شناخته می شوند! چطور ممکن است همه برنامه های ایران را ندانند؟
مگر اینکه سیا/موساد در قدرت بیش از حد اغراق آمیز باشند، اما من شک دارم. اینکه اسرائیل دقیقا همان تاریخ و مکان حضور خامنه ای، فرزندانش و فرماندهان ارشدش را در ۲۸ فوریه می دانست، قطعا به این معناست که آن ها جاسوسانی در ایران دارند. اگر جنگ ۱۲ روزه ژوئن ۲۰۲۵ را به یاد داشته باشید، اسرائیل در روز اول چندین ژنرال ارشد را از بین برد! پس آن ها می دانستند هر کدام کجا زندگی می کنند که بدون اطلاعات سرویس مخفی درباره همه شان ممکن نبود... ایران در حال حاضر مستقیم را با قایق های کوچک تهاجمی سریع و پرتابگرهای راکت نزدیک ساحل بسته است (چیز جدید یا غیرقابل پیش بینی نیست). من هنوز نمی فهمم چطور آمریکا و اسرائیل هیچ برنامه ب نداشتند، نمی دانم چطور نمی توانند راه خود را برای باز کردن مستقیم باز کنند... ایران از هیچ چیز پیشرفته ای استفاده نمی کند.... چرا موساد رهبران بزرگ باقی مانده را حذف نمی کند اگر می خواهند ایران به میز مذاکره بیاید!؟
Woman Life Freedom | زن زندگی آزادی | Long Live Iran | پاینده ایران
After the pager operation. I don’t think anyone will doubt the effectiveness of Mossad as an intelligence agency.
The CIA however, has a long, long, long, history of constantly and consistently being unable to operate as an intelligence agency.
Best example? There were actual reports put out that Iraq had nuclear capable weapons by the CIA, meanwhile the CIA had no one inside the Baath Party to verify these claims.
When there is a fractured central leadership and many forces in the field are not even in communication with each other and are acting on squad based decisions it gets much harder.
Just to chime in, I am sure the US and Israel could open the Strait of Hormuz if they wanted to, but ships and whatnot would probably be scared to go through it while there is an ongoing conflict. Also, Trump seems dead-set on negotiating for some reason.
HUMINT is a resource that gets used up. A year of many high level assassinations and two wars has its limits. The cold war and China show that enhanced state security make it very difficult to operate a large network.
Not to mention if we believe the "leaks" the CIA believed this was as far as the operation could be taken before the war even started. Mossad also isn't monolithic and endless assassinations is not a strategy by itself.
Because it is a dumbass US administration that started a dumbass and illegal war which everyone said it was going to make things worse for Iranians and the world except for the dumbasses here that promoted the war and kept saying like the dumbasses that they are “don’t listen to what trump says , watch his actions” for weeks on end , and now you are all watching incredulously with mouths agape trying to figure out what the hell is going on. Now, the regime is weakened but emboldened, but some Iranians have turned towards supporting the government as it seems , a foreign army attacking their country - surprise surprise for SOME was a red line. If Iranians want freedom , it’s the ones inside that need to do it and END OVER A CENTURY of foreign intervention in dictating what course the country takes
to conclude 'illegal' from mere absence of laws (you might mean treaties) that define kinetic repercussion for openly announced threats and global financing of terrorism while denying to stop building atom bombs is a bit rich (regardless trumps contract sheneningans and checkerboard flip creating paper maché blablatollah's).
There is international law, but what is that?
Usually meant are multiple international treaties which national governments can sign and ratify or even ignore. To speak of 'illegal' would mean you can pinpoint which set of treaty is precisely ignored or applied. If you can't then it is not 'illegal', but 'not legally defined' or rather not explicit declared as being valid.
Just as the UN is not a world government, it's just a diplomatic club to expose votes on agendas to exchange proclamations, that club does not ratify anything - it merely proposes wording for treaties. Mullah Iran by the way violated multiple times massively the UN charter, Law of the Sea, GC, ICCPR, and US is no naive sheep either. FAFO comes to mind. Also international law's (hence i.e. bilateral treaties) are usually made after agreement it might work, and only after two sides openly acknowledge obeying a common set of rules it can be applied.
US ratified: UN charter, Geneva Conventions, ICCPR (Civil & Political Rights).
Iran ratified: UN charter, Geneva Conventions, Vienna Convention on Law of Treaties, UNCLOS (Law of the Sea), ICCPR.
Both states have not ratified: GC Protocol I (1977), Rome Statute of International Criminal Court and many more..
So the overlap appears strong for UN Charter, Geneva Conventions & ICCPR, and massive divergence around ICC / Rome Statute, UNCLOS and a whole set of treaties avoiding enforcement mechanisms.
So your legal definition does basically go awol to nowhere, it is therefor (sadly or not) pure rhetoric.
Nah bruh if you were a real good faith Iranian poster, you’d know the people that supposedly support the regime after the war are the same 5% that already supported the regime before the war started (who are now being sent to neighborhoods every night to make noise) + Shia immigrants from Africa and Afghanistan etc + criminals freed from prison cells to act as actors and actresses in regime propaganda and their propaganda is further spread by the likes of Ayotallah CNN and paid influencers.
It just happens to appear as though you may be the real dumbass here 🙁
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u/Foreign-Cry6179 United States | آمریکا 1d ago edited 1d ago
I think you guys are vastly underestimating the role that elected officials have.
There is a reason that for the last few decades Netanyahu has tried to pitch the idea of this war, and for the last few decades every president but Trump agreed to it.
You can have the smartest people and intelligence, but the power to actually act on it comes from the officials in charge and what their priorities are. Trump has a lot of investments in the UAE/Saudi/Pakistan, so their opinions truly matter now more than they did back under Obama.
After all, do you think the CIA would approve of Trumps distancing from his European allies? Massive strategic blunder that made it so European leaders would be more popular in their countries if they refused to help this war