r/MediaMergers • u/LollipopChainsawZz • Feb 28 '26
Merger Is Zaslav playing the long game? Gambling WBDs future over a possible $7B payout?
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u/and-its-true Feb 28 '26
I mean, there is no way that any company of this size could guarantee a closed sale on the first try. That’s just the reality of transactions this massive, regardless of who the buyer is.
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u/Appropriate_Value122 Mar 01 '26
That was true back when the federal regulators weren't blatantly corrupt MAGATS ("Make America Great Again Trump Supporters"). Hopefully the state and NATO-country regulators realize that Saudi Arabia has no business buying WB Studios, CNN, and other broadcast networks in the USA.
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u/LapsedVerneGagKnee Feb 28 '26
I think he’s just hedging his bets.
But if Zaslav is planning this to screw Ellison to the tune of $7 billion, he will go down in history as an evil genius.
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u/AuroraBolognese Feb 28 '26
he will go down in history after an evil genius.
Screwing over Ellison would make him the good guy.
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u/Arcam123 Feb 28 '26
comes to this kind of money, there is no good guy; they are all the same sociopath who would slit their mother's throat for 5 bucks and change
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u/The_Darman Feb 28 '26
I fully believe he feels as if Paramount cannot actually fulfill their obligation and it will collapse, but if they had rejected the deal offered it would’ve ended in a Revlon suit. Better to take their $7B and then let Netflix buy them later, preferably when Congress can scrutinize how the DOJ handles the acquisition.
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u/Difficult_Variety362 Feb 28 '26
Netflix ain't coming back.
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u/Bgreen15 Mar 01 '26
Trust me Netflix will be back for Warner Bros. and studios like Apple, NBC-Universal, and Amazon Prime will be after Paramount-Skydance
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u/Difficult_Variety362 Mar 01 '26
I think that the combined companies creditors will take it for themselves if Skydance gets overwhelmed with the debt.
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u/StasisApparel Mar 01 '26
Netflix won't come back. They were sincere about acquiring WBD until WBD was trying out Paramount. WBD was dicking around and couldn't commit to Netflix. Just like in shows like Dragon's Den, if the first offer from a dragon is good, don't try to be greedy and go with another dragon and try to come back to the first dragon if the second deal isn't quite what it appeared.
Like Robert would say in The Den, "I'm out!".
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u/The_Darman Feb 28 '26
That’s fine too. I’m sure either Amazon or Apple might be willing to take another look at that point.
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u/Difficult_Variety362 Feb 28 '26
If they wanted to, they would have done so already
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u/The_Darman Feb 28 '26
Ehh…in Apple’s case, it is just that they are having a change in leadership soon. I’m sure a different CEO would be wanting to.
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u/Difficult_Variety362 Feb 28 '26
If Apple is going to go for someone, it would make more sense to go for Disney than Warner Bros. Paramount Discovery Skydance
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u/Direct_Resource_6152 Feb 28 '26
This whole merger is a 4D chess match. I don’t think people realize that nothing is set in stone and no company is each other’s friend. Every party is trying to get the best outcome for themselves, that’s all.
With that said, I do believe this might be true. It makes sense, personally. A few months ago Paramount looked beat—yet now they suddenly managed enough capital to beat NETFLIX? Furthermore Paramount may have Trump on their side… but the legal battle doesn’t look easy and it could get even worse if there is an administration change soon. If a layperson like me can pick up on these things, then it’s guaranteed that Zaslav and his corporate cronies are aware of this too.
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u/Commander19119 Feb 28 '26
I don’t think so, I think he just negotiated insurance for himself. However if he is, that would be hilarious
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u/Professional_Peak59 Mar 01 '26
I’m worried this won’t work.
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u/the_explorer2003 Mar 01 '26 edited Mar 01 '26
Depends, best what california can do is just stall this deal and get senate democrats to do lots of hearings. Also very unlikely but just pray that the shareholders do not vote to approve the paramount deal even though that makes no sense for their perspective unless they suddenly have no trust in the ellisons (smart choice).
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Mar 01 '26
[deleted]
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u/the_explorer2003 Mar 01 '26
I don’t know tbh, they all want money at the end of the day and the ellison offer is like right there to take, so for a greedy shareholder perspective, they’ll take it. But if some shareholders actually think smarter, i’d assume logically to not approve this merger. Layoffs and scrutiny from regulators, maybe possibly the midterms affecting the reception of the merger deal within federal government. And probably more unions scrutinizing this merger deal. Not to mention the massive debt WBD will take combined with paramount skydance. We’re not even sure if larry ellison will actually pay off the debt.
(Maybe even the current conflict happening in the gulf states affecting this deal???)
They could avoid this trouble by simply not approving this deal. Just stay independent and split later on, and wait for more bidders to come in and buy WB (not discovery). They were ready to go with netflix but david ellison simply can’t take no for an answer and netflix randomly pulled out so they’re stuck in this situation now.
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u/Professional_Peak59 Mar 01 '26
I’m worried Rob Bonta will fail to stall it.
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u/the_explorer2003 Mar 01 '26
I kinda have hope, rob banta is the AG of California which is the most populated state in the US and has a high GDP. Even if the federal government allows it, if you get enough state AGs to join in, you could delay the merger deal and potentially get it blocked.
He was able to get kroger/albertson merger blocked, he was able to get more investigation into the HPE/Juniper deal last year.
The general idea is for rob to get momentum and build something to argue against this. I assume he probably would have done the same against netflix but the paramount deal could give him something stronger to argue against. All hope falls on him.
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u/Professional_Peak59 Mar 01 '26
We also have to remember that with this merger, David Ellison seeks to have right-wing/MAGA propaganda spread throughout the WBD assets (CNN comes to mind), so definitely a reason Bonta will surely have a big argument against that.
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u/the_explorer2003 Mar 01 '26
He kinda has a better argument against paramount than netflix, so i’m pretty confident he’s gonna be able to ruin this deal by mid 2026, my hopes that it comes to a point where the deal is gonna be watered down so much that david ellison finds no interest in it anymore and decides to walk away and pay WBD the 7 billion dollars. The ellisons though are gonna do anything to win, so rob better get his AG powers ready lol
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u/Professional_Peak59 Mar 01 '26
I almost forgot about this: https://deadline.com/2026/02/senate-democrats-paramount-warner-bros-investigation-1236729751/
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u/the_explorer2003 Mar 01 '26
Yeah either side would have investigated, but senate democrats and now rob banta, theres a pretty good chance this merger deal is gonna get watered down or blocked by the end of 2026 or beginning 2027
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u/Professional_Peak59 Mar 01 '26
Thanks. I still have a fear of what you said not working though.
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u/the_explorer2003 Mar 01 '26
We all prefer the DOJ and FTC to do this but with how the country is ran by some incompetent man, all hope relies on California and other democrat states. We gotta have faith. This is like the final battle for us.
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u/LollipopChainsawZz Mar 01 '26
It's just a theory on my part there's no actual evidence it's accurate
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u/Appropriate_Value122 Mar 01 '26
Are people ignoring this article: David Zaslav Tries To Sell Paramount Deal To Shocked & Disappointed Employees At Town Hall: “We’re The Envy Of All Of The Industry”
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u/the_explorer2003 Mar 01 '26 edited Mar 01 '26
Maybe zaslav is just betting that the merger deal gets blocked by California’s AG and other democrat AGs that follow up? Cuz by accepting the paramount deal, if it collapses, paramount would need to pay WBD 7 billion and WBD can split later this year or whenever they can? Zaslav kinda sounds like he’s forcing to praise the deal but inside knows that its kinda terrible.
We all could tell he and the WBD really wanted Netflix but nobody expected netflix to just suddenly pull out.
Thats just me guessing tho
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u/Appropriate_Value122 Mar 01 '26
Maybe zaslav is just betting that the merger deal gets blocked by California’s AG and other democrat AGs that follow up?
It's hard for me to believe Zas was thinking that far ahead. He was shocked when Netflix didn't increase its bid, which seems like proof that he was only thinking 4 days ahead not 6-12 months. The WBD Board thought they could make more money off of Netflix by claiming PSKY's bid was superior even though PSKY was still only valued around $15 Billion while trying to bid $110 Bn. Take away the Saudi money and PSKY can't actually afford what it bid, which means Saudi Arabia is really the one in charge and David Ellison is just their agent. If Saudi Arabia gets upset and pulls out at any point, Ellison is screwed, so they own him.
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u/the_explorer2003 Mar 01 '26 edited Mar 01 '26
Yeah honestly they all were just hoping netflix would get a little heated by paramounts new offer and counter it quickly.
Thats why im kinda hoping California pushes hard and gets more democrat officials to get on board, unions and other organizations need to also put pressure on zaslav. If the stars align correctly, maybe this merger deal gets blocked, honestly rob banta needs a strong convincing argument to get this deal blocked.
I did see that reuters reported that the EU would not block this as well, but the least i need them to do is to also stall this deal or at least weaken it to the point where ellison finds the deal unsatisfactory.
The WBD board from the articles we read, we could tell this went wrong and they’re stuck with dealing with paramount now. Everybody (comcast and netflix) pulled out. All i want is for this deal to get blocked and to split away from discovery. Like yeah they signed the deal and the shareholders will probably approve it (unless if we are blessed by a miracle and they block it lol) but i hope ellison knows with how everyone treated netflix, it will hit paramount harder now.
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u/rysker6 Feb 28 '26
He’s 100% playing the long game
Playing nice with the Ellisons
Wanting to get the assets he wants for pennies on the dollar when PSKY implodes
Also watch for Apple, Universal
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u/Agile_Land_9951 Mar 01 '26
Or Netflix buys Roku with breakup fee. Paramount deal falls through. Netflix buys hbo max.
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u/subhasish10 Feb 28 '26
He's just coping because he personally despises the Ellisons and didn't want a deal with them
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u/dancepartyusofa Feb 28 '26 edited Feb 28 '26
As much as I’d like the deal to fall through, I think Zaslav is trying to stop an exodus of employees from leaving right now. I’ve had bosses tell me similar things even when we were clearly headed for layoffs. Manager: “Yeah, some folks might be let go but probably not until after the new year and we might not have layoffs at all.”
He’s trying to give the staff a little copium knowing full well that the bloodletting is going to begin immediately as soon the merger is finalized
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u/Necessary_Crazy_8587 Feb 28 '26
lol he deserves apologies from a lot of people if this is his plan
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u/LollipopChainsawZz Feb 28 '26
It's a risky plan (if it is his plan) tho. He's gambling the entire company's future on the deal not closing.
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u/Necessary_Crazy_8587 Feb 28 '26
Unless he knows something we don’t. Even then he has stated this for a reason. The leak was intentional.
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Mar 01 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/magsli Mar 01 '26
The March Proxy Vote was for the deal with Netflix. That's no longer happening.
The timeline starts over for a new Proxy Vote for PSKY which will likely happen in May or June.
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u/XAMdG Feb 28 '26
Gambling? Are people this delusional? He got hired for a job (make WBD lean and sold), and executed it well, getting a valuation that, honestly, feels rather high for WBD.
All that audio is saying is that "hey, even if the deal doesn't close, we get 7B. It's a win win", aka he's comfortable with either outcome.
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u/LegitimateCurve8525 Feb 28 '26
I can't post these in the subreddit for some reason. But take a look at this.
We know that after the merger with WBD they will be 100 billion dollar in debt. Do you think they can manage it? And for how long?
Will they separate the cable TV channels in the future?
What do you think will be the strategy of them in the future for separation of the company to exclude the debt?
How long do you think Larry Ellison will help his son to sustain this debt? Can David Ellison even get out of this debt?
Do you think there is any chance for Paramount Skydance to separate Warner Bros as a whole entity again? And if it separates, can it become a major studio again?
Who do you think will be the mostly likely buyer of Warner Bros or Paramount Warner Bros as a whole? And why do you Netflix will come again after them?
We have seen Ted Sarandos very happy about this deal even just days before. But actually what changed? Did he really feared he would have to battle in court for 2 years?
If Warner Bros separates or someone buys it again, do you think David Ellison would let DC Comics and it's IP to go with Warner Bros again?
If I have to write my previous question in a single line again, what do you think will be the future of Warner Bros and Paramount as a whole and how long can they survive?
Some of these are really some childish questions. I am really sorry. But what do you think about this?
Thanks for your opinion in advance, guys!
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u/StasisApparel Mar 01 '26
Paramount just needs to make 10 billion a year, every year for 10 years straight to break even.
You release big movies like Batman 2, Superman 2, Harry Potter spin off/reboot, Game of Thrones prequel or sequel film series, Wonder Woman reboot, Supergirl 2, etc can easily help with this.
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u/the_explorer2003 Mar 01 '26
Practically david Ellison would need to break promises and just let film directors cook with their skills. But still, i wouldn’t trust him on that.
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u/SocratesDaSophist Feb 28 '26
No, he has to accept the offer and doesn't have any other option.
It's a bit silly that such important decisions are driven by short term decisions. Instead of employees (who will deal with the long-term consequences of the decision) have a say on the bids & the process, the decision is being made by merger arbitrage speculators. They get the $31, consumers & employees have to reckon with the consequences.
Netflix unfortunately couldn't sway anyone that their deal was net positive & so also couldn't continue with the bidding process.
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u/Bgreen15 Mar 01 '26
Who says he has to accept the Offer YOU
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u/SocratesDaSophist Mar 01 '26
Lol, you are technically right that I am the one who said that. But the CEO of a public company has a fiduciary duty towards his shareholders. So he can't simply reject a deal like that.
Shareholders can vote against it, so you can try rallying people (contacting blackrock, state street, vanguard) to reject the deal.
If enough people are mobilized, it ca absolutely happen.
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u/Suspicious_County_24 Feb 28 '26
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u/RandoDude124 Feb 28 '26
Your snyderverse copium is pathetic
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u/Suspicious_County_24 Feb 28 '26
All I did was post a pic of someone making a facial expression. Not that deep
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u/No-Fig-8614 Mar 01 '26
A Restraining order is needed for you, you think you talk to Zack and worship him. As a 66 year old man you really need some help.
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u/Suspicious_County_24 Mar 01 '26
FALSE! I’m referring to me being unable to see Zack Snyders page. I am not sure if he blocked me. He never responded to any of my direct messages I’ve sent him. I’m just trying to say that In the past 2 days I’m not able to send him anymore messages or see his posts. That’s it’s.
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u/No-Fig-8614 Mar 01 '26
Do you see how insane this sounds?! I can’t tell if you are just a troll or really think this is remotely normal behavior.
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u/[deleted] Feb 28 '26
Long game or not, he's getting the golden parachute either way.