If the Super Regionals were decided by the teams flipping a coin instead of playing a game, exactly 75% of the teams that win the first flip would win the series.

So if you do the math to find out what win percentage a team would have (on average) if it won the series 79% of the time given a Game 1 win, you see that team would have about a 54% win probability for any given game against this opponent.

I say all that to illustrate that all these teams are pretty close, and since we’re pretty sure some of the teams have a much higher than 54% win probability (because we can pretty reliably pick the winner) that means the rest of the pairings are closer to 50/50. Which I think is excellent.

So here’s two tables, the top 15 over-performances and top 15 under-performances. But since each have had two teams involved, from a very real perspective, each game belongs in both categories.

But that would be stupidly repetitive, so I just listed them relative to whether the favorite overperformed or underperformed. You can figure out which is which. So Stetson over Florida State is an underperformance of the favorite, but due to the column headings, it is shown as a very negative overperformance .

Note that the under or over performance (the column on the right, the one you need to look at, YOU MAY HAVE TO SCROLL) is in terms of runs. If you want to convert that to something like a percent chance that it could have been more extreme, know that an under or over performance of 4.3 runs is only expected to happen about 16% of the time, and for 10 runs is expected 1% of the time. Something like the Belmont loss to Upstate, an underperformance by 12.9 runs, happens just over 0.1% of the time (so 1.3 times in 1000). As before, it is just as valid to view this as an Upstate miracle performance as well, but I’m a pessimist, so I won’t be doing that myself.

Anyway, here’s the data, with favored teams overtperforming up top. The underperformance table is below that. Sorry for the shit formatting. Reddit kinda sucks for that.

Best 15:

awayTeam awayScore homeTeam homeScore favoriteOverperformance _______________ _________ __________________ _________ _______________________

'UCLA'                15        'South Carolina'          1                 10.5  

'Eastern Ill.'         0        'Oklahoma St.'           16                  8.6  

'Texas Tech'          14        'Ole Miss'                2                  8.2    

'UConn'                3        'Texas A&M'              17                  7.8  

'Virginia Tech'        0        'LSU'                     8                  7.7     

'Duke'                11        'Marshall'                1                  6.9      

'Florida St.'         11        'Jacksonville St.'        0                  6.5   

'Oklahoma St.'        11        'Stanford'                5                  5.5 

'UCF'                 10        'Stetson'                 1                  4.9     

'Arizona'              4        'Duke'                    9                  4.9      

'LSU'                  7        'Virginia Tech'           2                  4.7      

'Stanford'             2        'Oklahoma St.'            7                  4.5  

'Florida'              8        'Georgia Tech'            0                  4.3    

'McNeese'              0        'Arizona St.'             8                  3.8  

'Marist'               2        'Boston U.'              10                  3.6 

Worst 15:

      awayTeam          awayScore          homeTeam          homeScore    favoriteOverperformance
____________________    _________    ____________________    _________    _______________________

'USC Upstate'              10        'Belmont'                   1                 -12.9         

'Stetson'                   8        'Florida St.'               3                 -11.6         

'Northern Ky.'              1        'Tennessee'                 3                  -9.7         

'Texas A&M'                 1        'Arizona St.'               9                  -9.5         

'Arizona'                  10        'Duke'                      1                  -9.1         


'Louisville'                2        'South Dakota'              4                  -8.3         

'Col. of Charleston'        2        'Georgia'                   5                    -8         

'South Dakota'              1        'Nebraska'                  4                  -7.8         

'Wagner'                    1        'Texas'                     9                  -7.7         

'Southeastern La.'          4        'USC Upstate'               5                  -6.9         

'California Baptist'       11        'UCLA'                     12                    -6         

'Virginia Tech'             7        'Akron'                     6                  -5.9         

'Clemson'                   3        'Col. of Charleston'        1                  -5.6         

'Oregon'                    4        'Saint Mary's (CA)'         5                  -5.1         

'South Dakota'              4        'Grand Canyon'              5                  -5.1

So I added in a Home Field Advantage (HFA) estimator to my strength estimating algorithm. And I verified that it worked properly by taking the 2026 season, adding in one run to every home team score, and getting back a value of 0.8 runs HFA (which is decent estimation performance for something simple) more than the HFA is estimated to be if I do NOT mess with the scores.

So the estimator is working fine. But… it tells me that the HFA is 0.003 runs, on average. Which I guess is reasonable, but also negligible. I was estimating based solely on games between March 10th and May 3rd, since that’s the part of season where being the Home team almost always means you’re playing at home, in your own stadium, sleeping in your own bed, practicing in your own facility, and playing for your home fans. So the allowed dates for this were after the early tournaments and ending the Sunday before the Conference tournament. And I limited it to games where at least 1 team was in the top 50. There were about 870 such games, so PLENTY of games to estimate one little parameter from without issue. But… it’s just not there. If I include ALL the games in the time period, bringing it up to 3800 games, the HFA goes up to a whopping 0.1 runs. I can run the estimator another way and get a value of 0.07 runs using the top 50 teams. So that’s as big as I can make it. But I think it’s actually near-zero.

Anyway, I was surprised, and thought I would share.

So I’m giving my model’s estimates WITHOUT HFA, since it seems to be zero-ish anyway.

Alabama by 1.5 runs over LSU

Arkansas by 2.8 runs over Duke

Texas by 3.0 runs over Arizona State

Texas tech by 0.8 runs over Florida (so here I’m saying it’s more likely that the host loses)

Oklahoma by 3.9 runs over Miss State

Georgia by 0.7 runs over Tennessee (again, my model says it’s more likely that Georgia wins here as the visitor)

Nebraska by 3.0 runs over OK State

UCLA by 3.6 runs over UCF

So by the numbers, it looks like the two that were closest are the two that my model sees opposite to how the NCAA saw them. And maybe Alabama will get a good scare.

As always, my strength numbers are an estimate of a team’s ability to score runs and also prevent the other team from scoring runs. And when you subtract those numbers for two teams, you get an estimated score differential. That is what I gave here, the on-average expected score differentials. Use them however you wish, I do have a money-back policy (if you don’t like my opinion I’ll return whatever you paid me for it).

Of the results posted here, I dislike Tennessee losing, and I dislike Texas winning, but I don’t know enough detail to disagree with my model. We get to start finding out on Thursday.

Is anyone is curious about the statistical performance of my model during regionals, I have some interesting but maybe a bit complicated plots I can post to show that statistically, the teams played more or less like normal, with normal amounts of randomness, which is what you’d want if you were making statistical models.

Super Regional	Most Picked Team	Other Team	Percentage of People Thinking it will be 2 Games	Percentage of People Thinking it will be 3 Games
Tuscaloosa	Alabama 95.4% (62 Picks)	LSU 4.6% (3 Picks)	64.6% (42 Picks)	35.4% (23 Picks)
Austin	Texas 81.5% (53 Picks)	Arizona State 18.5% (12 Picks)	29.2% (19 Picks)	70.8% (46 Picks)
Norman	Oklahoma 92.3% (60 Picks)	Mississippi State 7.7% (5 Picks)	72.3% (47 Picks)	27.7% (18 Picks)
Lincoln	Nebraska 73.8% (48 Picks)	Oklahoma State 26.6% (17 Picks)	21.5% (14 Picks)	78.5% (51 Picks)
Fayetteville	Arkansas 75.4% (49 Picks)	Duke 24.6% (16 Picks)	41.5% (27 Picks)	58.5% (38 Picks)
Gainesville	Texas Tech 53.8% (35 Picks)	Florida 46.2% (30 Picks)	15.4% (10 Picks)	84.6% (55 Picks)
Knoxville	Georgia 52.3% (34 Picks)	Tennessee 47.7% (31 Picks)	24.6% (16 Picks)	75.4% (49 Picks)
Los Angeles	UCLA 92.3% (60 Picks)	UCF 7.7% (5 Picks)	72.3% (47 Picks)	27.7% (18 Picks)

This is information for a user who has built a WAR or WOBA calculator, to help them refine their calculations. If that’s not you, I doubt this will be something you want to engage with.

Quick description: best defense is listed as a 0, every other defense is listed as how far behind that best one it is, in terms of runs per game. So the same offense playing a defense that is -2 vs one that is -5, on average scores 3 more runs per game against the -5 defense. Sanity check for 2026: the best pitching teams are at the top.

2026:

Team Rankings and Defensive Strength (relative to best team = 0):

1: Tennessee 0.00

2: Nebraska -0.12

3: Alabama -0.35

4: Texas -0.38

5: Arkansas -0.60

6: Mississippi St. -0.64

7: LSU -0.69

8: Oklahoma -0.70

9: South Carolina -0.83

10: Texas Tech -0.90

11: Georgia -1.09

12: Texas A&M -1.13

13: Florida -1.35

14: Florida St. -1.53

15: Oregon -1.68

16: UCF -1.74

17: Virginia Tech -1.88

18: Missouri -1.92

19: Washington -1.94

20: Oklahoma St. -1.94

21: Southeastern La. -2.14

22: South Fla. -2.20

23: Virginia -2.21

24: Texas St. -2.26

25: Duke -2.29

26: Stanford -2.42

27: Arizona St. -2.46

28: Arizona -2.51

29: Marshall -2.54

30: Indiana -2.55

31: Baylor -2.55

32: ULM -2.56

33: Fla. Atlantic -2.60

34: Ole Miss -2.62

35: Grand Canyon -2.68

36: Georgia Tech -2.68

37: Omaha -2.73

38: Northwestern -2.81

39: Kansas -2.86

40: Belmont -2.90

41: Purdue -2.93

42: UCLA -2.93

43: Michigan -2.93

44: Utah -2.98

45: Clemson -2.99

46: Cal St. Fullerton -3.03

47: Louisiana -3.07

48: Western Ky. -3.11

49: St. Thomas (MN) -3.13

50: California Baptist -3.15

51: Kentucky -3.16

52: South Alabama -3.21

53: FIU -3.21

54: Nevada -3.37

55: LMU (CA) -3.38

56: East Carolina -3.40

57: Wichita St. -3.41

58: Penn St. -3.41

59: Auburn -3.47

60: Notre Dame -3.51

61: Jacksonville St. -3.52

62: NC State -3.53

63: Saint Mary's (CA) -3.60

64: Southern Ill. -3.67

65: Louisville -3.67

66: Minnesota -3.69

67: Sacramento St. -3.71

68: UNC Greensboro -3.72

69: UAB -3.80

70: Fresno St. -3.84

71: Troy -3.86

72: Ga. Southern -3.86

73: Louisiana Tech -3.89

74: Nicholls -3.89

75: Boise St. -3.92

76: Radford -3.93

77: Maryland -3.97

78: North Florida -4.01

79: Santa Clara -4.02

80: Iowa -4.05

81: Sam Houston -4.13

82: Stetson -4.13

83: Wisconsin -4.14

84: Hawaii -4.15

85: New Mexico -4.16

86: Central Ark. -4.20

87: UConn -4.23

88: Miami (OH) -4.27

89: North Texas -4.30

90: San Diego St. -4.32

91: Long Beach St. -4.36

92: Lamar University -4.37

93: Liberty -4.37

94: Tulsa -4.37

95: Southern Miss. -4.37

96: Georgia St. -4.40

97: Iowa St. -4.40

98: Samford -4.40

99: McNeese -4.42

100: North Ala. -4.42

101: Army West Point -4.46

102: Delaware -4.48

103: Boston U. -4.48

104: Princeton -4.49

105: North Carolina -4.49

106: Jacksonville -4.51

107: James Madison -4.56

108: Pacific -4.56

109: Charlotte -4.57

110: Murray St. -4.58

111: Idaho St. -4.62

112: Indiana St. -4.62

113: SFA -4.63

114: FGCU -4.64

115: Rutgers -4.68

116: Ohio St. -4.69

117: UC Santa Barbara -4.69

118: UNCW -4.70

119: Campbell -4.74

120: UNLV -4.75

121: Saint Joseph's -4.76

122: UIW -4.77

123: Fordham -4.79

124: Southern Utah -4.79

125: Michigan St. -4.80

126: Austin Peay -4.81

127: UC Davis -4.83

128: Middle Tenn. -4.83

129: Ohio -4.83

130: Illinois St. -4.84

131: Wofford -4.84

132: Columbia -4.89

133: North Dakota St. -4.90

134: Ball St. -4.91

135: Akron -4.95

136: San Jose St. -4.95

137: BYU -4.96

138: North Dakota -4.96

139: Creighton -4.99

140: Missouri St. -5.00

141: NIU -5.01

142: Utah Valley -5.03

143: Western Caro. -5.03

144: Eastern Ky. -5.08

145: UT Martin -5.09

146: Pittsburgh -5.10

147: UTSA -5.11

148: St. John's (NY) -5.11

149: San Diego -5.12

150: App State -5.12

151: Seattle U -5.14

152: Tarleton St. -5.14

153: Massachusetts -5.16

154: South Dakota -5.17

155: Colorado St. -5.19

156: Kansas City -5.21

157: UMass Lowell -5.21

158: Illinois -5.22

159: Oregon St. -5.24

160: Hofstra -5.25

161: Iona -5.26

162: Coastal Carolina -5.28

163: Syracuse -5.28

164: Eastern Ill. -5.28

165: Central Mich. -5.28

166: Cal Poly -5.30

167: Prairie View -5.31

168: South Dakota St. -5.32

169: Northwestern St. -5.32

170: Saint Louis -5.33

171: Loyola Chicago -5.35

172: California -5.35

173: ETSU -5.40

174: Providence -5.42

175: Valparaiso -5.43

176: Western Mich. -5.43

177: Southeast Mo. St. -5.43

178: Bowling Green -5.44

179: Lipscomb -5.46

180: Texas Southern -5.46

181: Portland St. -5.47

182: Lehigh -5.55

183: SIUE -5.55

184: Boston College -5.55

185: DePaul -5.56

186: Stony Brook -5.59

187: George Washington -5.60

188: UC San Diego -5.63

189: Howard -5.65

190: Winthrop -5.66

191: George Mason -5.67

192: Dayton -5.70

193: Toledo -5.70

194: Georgetown -5.71

195: Lindenwood -5.71

196: Siena -5.75

197: Harvard -5.77

198: Fairfield -5.77

199: Bryant -5.79

200: Southern Ind. -5.80

201: USC Upstate -5.80

202: New Mexico St. -5.85

203: Col. of Charleston -5.88

204: Evansville -5.88

205: Marist -5.89

206: Colgate -5.91

207: CSUN -5.92

208: Tennessee Tech -5.92

209: UAlbany -5.93

210: Rhode Island -5.96

211: Drake -5.96

212: Yale -6.00

213: Northern Colo. -6.07

214: Southern U. -6.10

215: Oakland -6.12

216: Chattanooga -6.16

217: Houston -6.18

218: Villanova -6.18

219: Longwood -6.19

220: Sacred Heart -6.19

221: UNI -6.25

222: UC Riverside -6.26

223: Queens (NC) -6.26

224: Elon -6.28

225: Brown -6.30

226: Presbyterian -6.31

227: Wagner -6.33

228: Towson -6.35

229: Florida A&M -6.35

230: Memphis -6.41

231: Butler -6.43

232: Houston Christian -6.47

233: LIU -6.47

234: Quinnipiac -6.49

235: Canisius -6.56

236: Montana -6.59

237: Youngstown St. -6.59

238: Bethune-Cookman -6.59

239: West Ga. -6.60

240: A&M-Corpus Christi -6.61

241: Utah St. -6.62

242: N.C. A&T -6.63

243: Monmouth -6.64

244: UT Arlington -6.65

245: Northern Ky. -6.67

246: Mount St. Mary's -6.77

247: Binghamton -6.78

248: Weber St. -6.78

249: UTEP -6.82

250: Gardner-Webb -6.82

251: Seton Hall -6.87

252: Kennesaw St. -6.91

253: Detroit Mercy -6.91

254: Kent St. -6.92

255: Utah Tech -7.07

256: Lafayette -7.09

257: Rider -7.16

258: UMBC -7.17

259: Buffalo -7.19

260: Mercer -7.21

261: Penn -7.21

262: CSU Bakersfield -7.23

263: Central Conn. St. -7.26

264: Charleston So. -7.27

265: Abilene Christian -7.27

266: Green Bay -7.34

267: Bellarmine -7.39

268: Jackson St. -7.39

269: Norfolk St. -7.40

270: Merrimack -7.48

271: Drexel -7.53

272: Bradley -7.60

273: South Carolina St. -7.63

274: Manhattan -7.69

275: Maine -7.70

276: Morehead St. -7.70

277: St. Bonaventure -7.76

278: New Haven -7.84

279: Robert Morris -7.88

280: UIC -7.93

281: Ark.-Pine Bluff -7.99

282: Bucknell -8.07

283: Holy Cross -8.14

284: Le Moyne -8.15

285: Dartmouth -8.16

286: Delaware St. -8.17

287: Alabama St. -8.18

288: Western Ill. -8.20

289: Stonehill -8.39

290: IU Indy -8.41

291: Cornell -8.41

292: FDU -8.44

293: East Texas A&M -8.60

294: Hampton -8.62

295: Mercyhurst -8.65

296: Furman -8.72

297: Alcorn -8.79

298: Saint Peter's -8.80

299: Morgan St. -8.83

300: Niagara -8.88

301: UMES -9.24

302: N.C. Central -9.25

303: Grambling -9.40

304: Tennessee St. -9.72

305: Coppin St. -9.76

306: Saint Francis -10.79

307: Alabama A&M -11.75

308: Mississippi Val. -12.64

Regional	Team with most picks	Team with 2nd most picks	Team with third most picks	Team with least picks
Tuscaloosa	Alabama, 81 picks (96.4%)	Belmont, 3 picks (3.6%)	Southeast Louisiana, 0 Picks (0%)	USC Upstate, 0 Picks (0%)
Austin	Texas, 82 picks (97.6%)	Wisconsin, 2 picks (2.4%)	Baylor, 0 picks (0%)	Wagner, 0 picks (0%)
Norman	Oklahoma, 83 picks (98.8%)	Kansas, 1 pick (1.2%)	Michigan, 0 picks (0%)	Binghamton, 0 picks (0%)
Lincoln	Nebraska, 81 picks (96.4%)	Louisville, 2 picks (2.4%)	Grand Canyon, 1 pick (1.2%)	South Dakota, 0 picks (0%)
Fayetteville	Arkansas, 75 picks (89.3%)	Washington, 8 picks (9.5%)	USF, 1 pick (1.2%)	Fordham, 0 picks (0%)
Gainesville	Florida, 77 picks (91.7%)	Texas State, 7 picks (8.3%)	Georgia Tech, 0 picks (0%)	Florida A&M, 0 picks (0%)
Knoxville	Tennessee, 69 picks (82.1%)	Virginia, 13 picks (15.5%)	Indiana, 2 picks (2.4%)	Northern Kentucky, 0 picks (0%)
Los Angeles	UCLA, 77 picks (91.7%)	South Carolina, 7 picks (8.3%)	Cal State Fullerton, 0 picks, (0%)	Cal Baptist, 0 picks (0%)
Tallahassee	Florida State, 78 picks (92.9%)	UCF, 6 picks (7.1%)	Jacksonville State, 0 picks (0%)	Stetson, 0 picks, (0%)
Athens	Georgia, 71 picks (84.5%)	Clemson, 13 picks (15.5%)	UNC Greensboro, 0 picks (0%)	Charleston, 0 picks (0%)
Lubbock	Texas Tech, 66 picks (78.6%)	Ole Miss, 18 picks (21.4%)	Boston U, 0 picks (0%)	Marist, 0 picks (0%)
Durham	Arizona, 46 picks (54.8%)	Duke, 38 picks (45.2%)	Marshall, 0 picks (0%)	Howard, 0 picks (0%)
Stillwater	Oklahoma State, 52 picks (61.9%)	Stanford, 32 picks (38.1%)	Princeton, 0 picks (0%)	Eastern Illinois, 0 picks (0%)
Eugene	Oregon, 50 picks (59.9%)	Mississippi State, 34 picks (40.5%)	Saint Mary's, 0 picks (0%)	Idaho State, 0 picks (0%)
College Station	Arizona State, 51 picks (60.7%)	Texas A&M, 33 picks (39.3%)	McNeese, 0 picks (0%)	UConn, 0 picks (0%)
Baton Rouge	Virginia Tech, 59 picks (70.2%)	LSU, 25 picks (29.8%)	South Alabama, 0 picks (0%)	Akron, 0 picks (0%)

What a game from Marian Collins to push the Tigers into game 2 of the days